Application of the integrated threat theory to conservation law enforcement.

Interactions between law enforcement agents in conservation (e.g., rangers) and illegal resource users (e.g., illegal hunters) can be violent and sometimes fatal, which negatively affects conservation efforts and people's well-being. Models from social psychology, such as integrated threat theory (ITT) (intergroup interactions shape intergroup emotions, prejudices and perceived threats leading to hostile attitudes or behaviors between groups), are useful in addressing such interactions. Conservation approaches relying mainly on law enforcement have never been investigated using this framework. Using a structured questionnaire, we collected data from 282 rangers in protected and unprotected areas (n = 50) in northern Iran. We applied Bayesian structural equation modeling in an assessment of rangers' affective attitudes (i.e., emotions or feelings that shape attitudes toward a person or object) toward illegal hunters in an ITT framework. Rangers' positive perceptions of illegal hunters were negatively associated with intergroup anxiety (emotional response to fear) and negative stereotypes about a hunter's personality, which mediated the relationship between negative contact and affective attitudes. This suggests that negative contact, such as verbal abuse, may lead rangers to perceive illegal hunters as arrogant or cruel, which likely forms a basis for perceived threats. Rangers' positive contact with illegal hunters, such as playing or working together, likely lowered their perceived realistic threats (i.e., fear of property damage). Perceived realistic threats of rangers were positively associated with negative contacts (e.g., physical harm). The associations we identified suggest that relationships based on positive interactions between rangers and illegal hunters can reduce fear and prejudice. Thus, we suggest that rangers and hunters be provided with safe spaces to have positive interactions, which may help lower tension and develop cooperative conservation mechanisms.

Aplicación de la teoría integrada de la amenaza a la implementación de las leyes de conservación Resumen Las interacciones entre los agentes de la ley de la conservación (p. ej.: guardabosques) y los usuarios ilegales de recursos (p. ej.: cazadores ilegales) pueden ser violentas y a veces fatales, lo que afecta negativamente los esfuerzos de conservación y el bienestar de las personas. Los modelos de la psicología social, como la teoría integrada de la amenaza (TIA) (una amenaza percibida que deriva en prejuicios entre los grupos), tienen un uso potencial para tratar estas interacciones. Nunca se ha usado este marco para investigar las estrategias de conservación que dependen principalmente de la implementación de la ley. Usamos un cuestionario estructurado para recolectar datos de 282 guardabosques en áreas protegidas y no protegidas (n = 50) en el norte de Irán. Aplicamos el modelo de ecuación estructural bayesiano a la evaluación de las actitudes afectivas que tienen los guardabosques (es decir, emociones o sentimientos que forjan la actitud hacia una persona o un objeto) hacia los cazadores ilegales en un marco de TIA. La percepción negativa que tienen los guardabosques de los cazadores ilegales estuvo asociada negativamente con ansiedad intergrupal (la respuesta emocional al miedo) y estereotipos negativos de la personalidad de los cazadores, las cuales mediaron la relación entre el contacto negativo y las actitudes afectivas. Esto sugiere que el contacto negativo, como el abuso verbal, puede causar que los guardabosques perciban a los cazadores ilegales como arrogantes o crueles, lo que probablemente forma una base para las amenazas percibidas. El contacto positivo entre los guardabosques y los cazadores ilegales, como jugar o trabajar juntos, probablemente disminuyó la percepción de las amenazas realistas (es decir, miedo al daño material). La percepción que tienen los guardabosques de las amenazas realistas estuvieron asociadas positivamente con los contactos negativos (p. ej.: daño físico). Las asociaciones que identificamos sugieren que las relaciones basadas en las interacciones positivas entre los guardabosques y los cazadores ilegales pueden reducir el miedo y los prejuicios. Por lo tanto, sugerimos que se les proporcionen espacios seguros a los guardabosques y a los cazadores ilegales para que puedan tener interacciones positivas, lo que podría ayudar a reducir tensiones y a desarrollar mecanismos cooperativos de conservación.

A novel, post-Soviet fire disturbance regime drives bird diversity and abundance on the Eurasian steppe.

Many grassland ecosystems and their associated biodiversity depend on the interactions between fire and land-use, both of which are shaped by socioeconomic conditions. The Eurasian steppe biome, much of it situated in Kazakhstan, contains 10% of the world's remaining grasslands. The break-up of the Soviet Union in 1991, widespread land abandonment and massive declines in wild and domestic ungulates led to biomass accumulation over millions of hectares. This rapid fuel increase made the steppes a global fire hotspot, with major changes in vegetation structure. Yet, the response of steppe biodiversity to these changes remains unexplored. We utilized a unique bird abundance dataset covering the entire Kazakh steppe and semi-desert regions together with the MODIS burned area product. We modeled the response of bird species richness and abundance as a function of fire disturbance variables-fire extent, cumulative burned area, fire frequency-at varying grazing intensity. Bird species richness was impacted negatively by large fire extent, cumulative burned area, and high fire frequency in moderately grazed and ungrazed steppe. Similarly, overall bird abundance was impacted negatively by large fire extent, cumulative burned area and higher fire frequency in the moderately grazed steppe, ungrazed steppe, and ungrazed semi-deserts. At the species level, the effect of high fire disturbance was negative for more species than positive. There were considerable fire legacy effects, detectable for at least 8 years. We conclude that the increase in fire disturbance across the post-Soviet Eurasian steppe has led to strong declines in bird abundance and pronounced changes in community assembly. To gain back control over wildfires and prevent further biodiversity loss, restoration of wild herbivore populations and traditional domestic ungulate grazing systems seems much needed.

Hunting and persecution drive mammal declines in Iran.

The negative impacts of human activities on biodiversity are well documented. However, extinction risk studies incorporating direct human threats particularly direct killing remain limited. Here, we evaluate the potential role that direct killing through hunting and persecution, indirect human threats via land-use change, and environmental and species traits such as reproductive rate and trophic level among others, may play in driving mammal species to extinction. Based on data for 156 mammal species from Iran, we applied generalized linear models to investigate correlates of extinction risk for: (1) all mammalian species, (2) large- and (3) small-bodied species. We show that hunting vulnerability is the most important predictor to affect extinction risk across all species. We also found that the small-bodied species are impacted by indirect human influence, whereas large species are highly affected by direct killing. Overall, the extrinsic environmental factors and intrinsic species traits had lower importance in our models. Our study gives insight into the dominant role of direct killing on mammal species decline and extinction, emphasizing the need to account for the different sources of threats when analysing the correlates of extinction risk.

Understanding spatial patterns of poaching pressure using ranger logbook data to optimize future patrolling strategies.

Poaching is driving many species toward extinction, and as a result, lowering poaching pressure is a conservation priority. This requires understanding where poaching pressure is high and which factors determine these spatial patterns. However, the cryptic and illegal nature of poaching makes this difficult. Ranger patrol data, typically recorded in protected area logbooks, contain information on patrolling efforts and poaching detection and should thus provide opportunities for a better understanding of poaching pressure. However, these data are seldom analyzed and rarely used to inform adaptive management strategies. We developed a novel approach to making use of analog logbook records to map poaching pressure and to test environmental criminology and predator-prey relationship hypotheses explaining poaching patterns. We showcase this approach for Golestan National Park in Iran, where poaching has substantially depleted ungulate populations. We digitized data from >4800 ranger patrols from 2014 to 2016 and used an occupancy modeling framework to relate poaching to (1) accessibility, (2) law enforcement, and (3) prey availability factors. Based on predicted poaching pressure and patrolling intensity, we provide suggestions for future patrol allocation strategies. Our results revealed a low probability (12%) of poacher detection during patrols. Poaching distribution was best explained by prey availability, indicating that poachers target areas with high concentrations of ungulates. Poaching pressure was estimated to be high (>0.49) in 39% of our study area. To alleviate poaching pressure, we recommend ramping up patrolling intensity in 12% of the national park, which could be achievable by reducing excess patrols in about 20% of the park. However, our results suggest that for 27% of the park, it is necessary to improve patrolling quality to increase detection probability of poaching, for example, by closing temporal patrolling gaps or expanding informant networks. Our approach illustrates that analog ranger logbooks are an untapped resource for evidence-based and adaptive planning of protected area management. Using this wealth of data can open up new avenues to better understand poaching and its determinants, to expand effectiveness assessments to the past, and, more generally, to allow for strategic conservation planning in protected areas.

Reducing persecution is more effective for restoring large carnivores than restoring their prey.

Large carnivores are currently disappearing from many world regions because of habitat loss, prey depletion, and persecution. Ensuring large carnivore persistence requires safeguarding and sometimes facilitating the expansion of their populations. Understanding which conservation strategies, such as reducing persecution or restoring prey, are most effective to help carnivores to reclaim their former ranges is therefore important. Here, we systematically explored such alternative strategies for the endangered Persian leopard (Panthera pardus saxicolor) in the Caucasus. We combined a rule-based habitat suitability map and a spatially explicit leopard population model to identify potential leopard subpopulations (i.e., breeding patches), and to test the effect of different levels of persecution reduction and prey restoration on leopard population viability across the entire Caucasus ecoregion and northern Iran (about 737,000 km2 ). We identified substantial areas of potentially suitable leopard habitat (~120,000 km2 ), most of which is currently unoccupied. Our model revealed that leopards could potentially recolonize these patches and increase to a population of >1,000 individuals in 100 yr, but only in scenarios of medium to high persecution reduction and prey restoration. Overall, reducing persecution had a more pronounced effect on leopard metapopulation viability than prey restoration: Without conservation strategies to reduce persecution, leopards went extinct from the Caucasus in all scenarios tested. Our study highlights the importance of persecution reduction in small populations, which should hence be prioritized when resources for conservation are limited. We show how individual-based, spatially explicit metapopulation models can help in quantifying the recolonization potential of large carnivores in unoccupied habitat, designing adequate conservation strategies to foster such recolonizations, and anticipating the long-term prospects of carnivore populations under alternative scenarios. Our study also outlines how data scarcity, which is typical for threatened range-expanding species, can be overcome with a rule-based habitat map. For Persian leopards, our projections clearly suggest that there is a large potential for a viable metapopulation in the Caucasus, but only if major conservation actions are taken towards reducing persecution and restoring prey.

Cattle selectivity by leopards suggests ways to mitigate human-leopard conflict.

Addressing widespread livestock losses to carnivores requires information on which livestock categories are preferentially selected. We analyzed an individual-based database of cattle grazing in forest (n = 932) and having been killed (n = 70) by leopards (Panthera pardus) in the Hyrcanian forest, Iran. We calculated Jacobs' selectivity index for cattle age, sex, and coloration across four scales: the study area as a whole, three sites, nine villages, and 60 cattle owners. Naturally colored cattle were significantly preferred by leopards at all scales in comparison with black and black-and-white cattle, and there was also a preference for males and juveniles at the study area level. More research is needed to see whether cattle losses would decrease if the share of naturally colored individuals in local holdings was reduced and males and juveniles had limited access to forest. We conclude that phenotypic and biologic characteristics of livestock can affect depredation and appeal for more research in this direction, particularly within the predator-prey framework.

Effects of shepherds and dogs on livestock depredation by leopards (Panthera pardus) in north-eastern Iran.

Human-carnivore conflicts over livestock depredation are increasingly common, yet little is understood about the role of husbandry in conflict mitigation. As shepherds and guarding dogs are most commonly used to curb carnivore attacks on grazing livestock, evaluation and improvement of these practices becomes an important task. We addressed this issue by studying individual leopard (Panthera pardus) attacks on sheep and goats in 34 villages near Golestan National Park, Iran. We obtained and analyzed data on 39 attacks, which included a total loss of 31 sheep and 36 goats in 17 villages. We applied non-parametric testing, Poisson Generalized Linear Modelling (GLM) and model selection to assess how numbers of sheep and goats killed per attack are associated with the presence and absence of shepherds and dogs during attacks, depredation in previous years, villages, seasons, ethnic groups, numbers of sheep and goats kept in villages, and distances from villages to the nearest protected areas. We found that 95.5% of losses were inflicted in forests when sheep and goats were accompanied by shepherds (92.5% of losses) and dogs (77.6%). Leopards tended to kill more sheep and goats per attack (surplus killing) when dogs were absent in villages distant from protected areas, but still inflicted most losses when dogs were present, mainly in villages near protected areas. No other variables affected numbers of sheep and goats killed per attack. These results indicate that local husbandry practices are ineffectual and the mere presence of shepherds and guarding dogs is not enough to secure protection. Shepherds witnessed leopard attacks, but could not deter them while dogs did not exhibit guarding behavior and were sometimes killed by leopards. In an attempt to make practical, low-cost and socially acceptable improvements in local husbandry, we suggest that dogs are raised to create a strong social bond with livestock, shepherds use only best available dogs, small flocks are aggregated into larger ones and available shepherds herd these larger flocks together. Use of deterrents and avoidance of areas close to Golestan and in central, core areas of neighboring protected areas is also essential to keep losses down.

Assessing the Role of Livestock in Big Cat Prey Choice Using Spatiotemporal Availability Patterns.

Livestock is represented in big cat diets throughout the world. Husbandry approaches aim to reduce depredation, which may influence patterns of prey choice, but whether felids have a preference for livestock or not often remains unclear as most studies ignore livestock availability. We assessed prey choice of the endangered Persian leopard (Panthera pardus saxicolor) in Golestan National Park, Iran, where conflict over livestock depredation occurs. We analyzed leopard diet (77 scats) and assessed wild and domestic prey abundance by line transect sampling (186 km), camera-trapping (2777 camera days), double-observer point-counts (64 scans) and questionnaire surveys (136 respondents). Based on interviews with 18 shepherds, we estimated monthly grazing time outside six villages with 96 conflict cases to obtain a small livestock (domestic sheep and goat) availability coefficient. Using this coefficient, which ranged between 0.40 and 0.63 for different villages, we estimated the numbers of sheep and goats available to leopard depredation. Leopard diet consisted mainly of wild boar (Sus scrofa) (50.2% biomass consumed), but bezoar goat (Capra aegagrus) was the most preferred prey species (Ij = 0.73), whereas sheep and goats were avoided (Ij = -0.54). When absolute sheep and goat numbers (~11250) were used instead of the corrected ones (~6392), avoidance of small livestock appeared to be even stronger (Ij = -0.71). We suggest that future assessments of livestock choice by felids should incorporate such case-specific corrections for spatiotemporal patterns of availability, which may vary with husbandry methods. Such an approach increases our understanding of human-felid conflict dynamics and the role of livestock in felid diets.

Dissatisfaction with Veterinary Services Is Associated with Leopard (Panthera pardus) Predation on Domestic Animals.

Human-carnivore conflicts challenge biodiversity conservation and local livelihoods, but the role of diseases of domestic animals in their predation by carnivores is poorly understood. We conducted a human-leopard (Panthera pardus) conflict study throughout all 34 villages around Golestan National Park, Iran in order to find the most important conflict determinants and to use them in predicting the probabilities of conflict and killing of cattle, sheep and goats, and dogs. We found that the more villagers were dissatisfied with veterinary services, the more likely they were to lose livestock and dogs to leopard predation. Dissatisfaction occurred when vaccination crews failed to visit villages at all or, in most cases, arrived too late to prevent diseases from spreading. We suggest that increased morbidity of livestock makes them particularly vulnerable to leopard attacks. Moreover, conflicts and dog killing were higher in villages located closer to the boundaries of the protected area than in distant villages. Therefore, we appeal for improved enforcement and coordination of veterinary services in our study area, and propose several priority research topics such as veterinarian studies, role of wild prey in diseases of domestic animals, and further analysis of potential conflict predictors.